Car sales drop, government help forever?

Business: I think we all saw this coming down the road.

Auto executives said on Monday that the industry had little chance of improving in the first half of 2009 because of a continued lack of available credit for prospective car buyers and a profound lack of confidence in an overall economic recovery. “The first quarter is going to be bad no matter how you look at it,” said Emily Kolinski Morris, a senior Ford economist. “Once we get into the second quarter, we’ll have a better idea.” G.M.’s chief market analyst, Michael C. DiGiovanni, said the automaker was predicting industry sales of 10.5 million to 12 million vehicles for the year. While the Bush administration approved up to $17.4 billion in loans to G.M. and Chrysler, analysts say they expect the Detroit auto companies to need longer-term assistance from the incoming president, Barack Obama. “The internal problems of the Big Three are so great, there is no way they can survive without government help for several years,” Mr. Casesa said.