Newsweek: Recession is over.

Here comes the recession is over pieces as fall is around the corner, even though many economists and the CBO predicted that as well earlier this year(without the stimulus). I can't wait to see how Obama takes credit for making the recession over.

Macroeconomic Advisers, the St. Louis-based consulting firm that compiles a monthly GDP index, reported to its clients Monday that while second-quarter GDP was tracking at negative 0.1 percent (recession), the third quarter was tracking at 2.4 percent growth. The folks at the Economic Cycles Research Institute agree enthusiastically. It's not because they've detected green pea shoots in Central Park. Rather, it's because we've seen the three P's, says Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI, which has been studying business cycles for decades and was one of the few outfits to call the last two recessions with any degree of accuracy. ....All three are now flashing green. According to Achuthan, the long-leading index growth rate has been recovering since November 2008, the weekly leading index has been recovering since last December, and the short-leading index growth rate bottomed in February 2009. In sequence, each turned up, "and by April the three Ps had all been satisfied." Sure, corporate profits continue to disappoint, and the unemployment rate is climbing. But for ECRI, which navigates by relying exclusively on its instruments, that's only a part of their picture. They're the Spocks of the economic forecasting crowd—unemotional, uninvested in anything but the logic of what history and their dashboard tell them. "From our vantage point, every week and every month our call is getting stronger, not weaker, including over the last few weeks," says Achuthan. "The recession is ending somewhere this summer." In fact, it may already be over.

The glory taking is already starting with Geithner.

As he did in London, Geithner said the global economy faced severe challenges but sounded a reassuring note about future prospects if "steady, forceful and sustained" support continues until private investment and spending lead a recovery. "The force of the global recession is receding," Geithner said. "For the first time in several quarters, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and a range of private analysts are starting to revise up their forecasts for growth in the second half of this year and next." He said it was vital to stabilize and repair a damaged U.S. financial system and outlined efforts to do so. "No recovery is possible without repairing the institutions and markets that are critical to the supply of credit," Geithner said. He said a $787 billion U.S. economic stimulus program, designed to boost demand over a two-year period, will have its largest impact on the spending side over the next six months.