The NY-23 race is surprisingly leaning towards the Dem Owen over Hoffman while backstab...er.. scozzafava is pulling in 5% of the rest which may be enough to keep Hoffman from winning.
But the bigger news in the grand scheme of things is the Republicans big night in
Virginia and
New Jersey.
McDonnell blew out Deeds by 18 points and leading a GOP sweep also with Lt.Gov and AG. The biggest loser in all of this has to be the Washington Post who basically handpicked Deeds and tried to drag him across the finish line by trying to "macca" McDonnell over a college thesis.
The biggest surprise and the one that pleases me the most is Corzine losing in New Jersey. I was sure he would win by about 1-2 points but it seems NJ people had enough and the independents broke hard for Christie.
The biggest loser here is Obama, he practically lived in the state for Corzine, the White House started to run Corzine's campaign and still a loss.
The other angle is what does this do for conservative and moderate Dems? Do they go all in with Obama's big government spending now? GOP has momentum coming out of this and in the next couple of days I hope the GOP leadership has enough sense to recognize the message.
This point on the lesson for the GOP is the independents are out there who were once GOPers and those who are receptive to a fiscal conservative message. Say what you mean and actually do as you say. What people are going to look for in 2010 is competency and at least feel you are not blowing smoke up their behinds for votes.
I will say this about Hoffman who will lose this race to Owens. He pulled off a remarkable feat going against the establishment and putting out Favva who was nothing more than a Dem in Republican clothing. Now the GOP leadership has a decision to make, you want to make the mistake like Favva who would have been the congressional Arlen Specter or you are going to make sure that Hoffman or a competent challenger is ready for Owens in 2010?
Choices.
Update# from NBC's Chuck Todd.In NJ, more folks said they were "Republican" (31%) than "conservative" (30%). In VA, slightly tilted the other way with Consver # higher 24 minutes ago from Ping.fm
House GOP leadership sweating bullets over Hoffman race; A loss in NY 23 coupled with a close CA 10 race will drive grassroots nuts. 19 minutes ago from Ping.fm |
Grassroots will kick everyone of the House/GOP leadership out because up till a week ago, they were going after Hoffman like he stole something. If Favva hadn't turned around after she dropped out and backstabbed the party, I don't see the anger being that huge. Even if she didn't endorse anyone, but now forget it.
So I am not one for moral losses but the other results more than make up for this race.
Update: Lessons to learned not from New Jersey but Virginia.
A Republican Strategist's Take [Ramesh Ponnuru]
I just spoke to a smart one. He argues that the Virginia governor's race offers more lessons for Republicans than either the New Jersey race (because there was an incumbent on whom it was a referendum) or the New York congressional race (because its circumstances were too odd). One of the lessons he draws is that Republican candidates have to "finish the sentence." Instead of just saying that we have to keep taxes and spending low, and thus pleasing conservatives, he said, McDonnell explain how these policies would create jobs and "plug the hole in Richmond." Too many Republican candidates, he says, forget to do that.
He pours cold water on the idea that the elections were a referendum on Obama. "Obama's numbers in Virginia are not that bad. He's not upside-down, that's for sure." (That is, more people rate him favorably than unfavorably.) "I guarantee you that McDonnell got a lot of votes from people who approve of [the job Obama is doing]." He takes the vote to be a rejection of many of Obama's policies. But he adds, "I don't think that Republicans should come away from this and think that all that we have to do in 2010 is run against Obama. McDonnell had a very vigorous policy agenda."
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I think McDonnell's campaign is a nice blueprint to start off for any GOP candidate next year. Concise and substative and run against the policies of Obama and the Dems. Not Obama personally because that will be seen as weak. Attack the policies.